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Friday, May 20, 2005

Risks and probabilities

We know that both adults and kids are notoriously bad at estimating probabilities. Bruce Schneier (one of the world’s leading experts on security, cryptography, etc.) has this to say concerning risks and probabilities:
One of the things I routinely tell people is that if it’s in the news, don’t worry about it. By definition, “news” means that it hardly ever happens. If a risk is in the news, then it’s probably not worth worrying about. When something is no longer reported — automobile deaths, domestic violence — when it’s so common that it’s not news, then you should start worrying.

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